So what about Zune in terms of the Big Zune Question: what will the rebadged Toshiba Gigabeat do to the iPod?

There’s two possibilities: something and nothing.

Let’s explore those avenues. First, nothing: Zune will suck. Apple stock will continue to rise, both literally and metaphorically. iTunes Music Store and the iPod will continue to rule the marketplace because no amount of MS R&D and marketing muscle can buy a simple Microsoft product. None. That’s because Microsoft has always suffered from feature bloat, and this decades-long affliction shows no sign of letting up.

Case in point: Zune’s wireless song transfer capability. Great feature, right? Well yea, on a planet where the RIAA’s lawyers don’t roam. But here on Earth, music’s gatekeepers watch “music lifestyle” companies like Apple and Microsoft like a hawk. So a very promising feature becomes a tantilizing joke:

One of the features that Microsoft has been pushing as a key differentiator is its Zune to Zune WiFi feature. They have enabled the limited sharing of songs, recordings, playlists and pictures with others. Tracks received from another person can be played for up to three days or three plays, whichever comes first, after which it will need to be purchased via the Zune Marketplace. These limits are not only applied to Zune Marketplace music, but to all songs, without exception.

[wikipedia]

Ah, nothing like a constant reminder that you’re just this much DRM away from having an unlimited, untethered wireless song transfer wonderland between you and fellow Zune users. As it is, this feature is more like those small, dashboard plastic cover caps that hide options you didn’t get in your car. In other words, the silly 3-day limit will forever remind you of the possibilities of open file trading, but never allow it.

There’s been much criticism about other Zune aspects too, like the much-touted screen being bigger than the iPod’s. The truth is that yes, it is bigger, but they both have the same resolution. Again, something good (bigger) being applied as a gloss over a wash (same resolution). And Zune’s dimensions become somewhat larger than the iPod’s as a result of the bigger screen.

Can Microsoft’s version of the iTunes Music Store be as easy to use and provide the no-thinking-required integration between iTMS and the iPod? Time will tell.

And one last point: has MS’s Plays for Sure fiasco (Plays for Sure media does not play on Zunes) damaged the Zune marketplace even before Zune sees its release date? Obviously this is the case. Anyone locked out of playing their files “For Sure” on this MP3 player is simply not going to buy one.
So will it suck? And if so, and even more importantly, will it suck for long? Will Microsoft dial in on Apple’s five year lead? The Zune did come from the crack Xbox team, after all.

For answers to these and other important questions, check back for my next blog entry: Yes, The Zune Will Do Something To The iPod.

Plug: Buy your Zune with these links and help AS.